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The invitation has not yet been officially confirmed by Iran's Foreign Ministry or by any of the three countries that are parties to the agreement.
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pose after signing a joint defence agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026.(photo credit: Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)ByELI LEONUpdated: Iran has been invited to join the Mecca Agreement for Mutual Defense, the new security alliance established by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan earlier this month, Al Mayadeen reported on Saturday, citing a senior Iranian official.
The invitation has not yet been officially confirmed by Iran's Foreign Ministry or by any of the three countries that are parties to the agreement.
Mehdi Rahimi, head of the Iranian parliament's Khaneh Mellat news agency, told the channel that "Iran has received an invitation to join the Mecca Agreement, and the matter is under review."
Rahimi added that countries in the region "are moving toward seeking a regional security umbrella," and claimed that this represented "a victory for Iran, because it has been calling for this for a long time."
The Mecca Agreement was signed on August 7 by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, ahead of the expected signing of a defence deal between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026. (credit: Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Turkish Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS)The agreement establishes a principle of mutual defense under which an attack on any one of the three countries would be considered an attack on all of them. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan compared the mechanism to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, but stressed that the agreement was not directed against Iran or any specific country.
The member states have already begun developing mechanisms for diplomatic and military coordination, including meetings among foreign and defense ministers and military commanders, joint exercises, and cooperation between their defense industries.
Alliance could expand to include more countries
Turkey has said the alliance could expand to include additional countries. Egypt has been publicly mentioned as a possible candidate for membership.
Iran has so far responded to the agreement with cautious approval. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on August 10 that Tehran had "no reason for concern" over the establishment of the alliance.
According to Baghaei, the move reflects growing recognition among countries in the region of the need to build regional security mechanisms.
If the claim that Iran was invited is officially confirmed, Iranian membership would significantly alter the character of the alliance, which was established by three countries with close security ties to the West, and would turn it into a substantially broader regional framework.
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Ukraine’s New Missile Defense Strategy
As of August 2026, Ukraine is undergoing a major pivot in its missile defense strategy. Driven by plummeting interception rates and dwindling Western stockpiles of high-end interceptors, Kyiv has shifted from a purely reactive posture to a hybrid strategy combining preemptive "active defense" with the accelerated development of sovereign and pan-European anti-ballistic architectures.
Here is an analysis of Ukraine’s new strategic framework, along with expert assessments and predictions for the 2026–2027 timeline.
The "Lethal Math" Forcing the Shift
The catalyst for this new strategy is a severe disparity in production and interception mathematics.
According to recent analyses, Russia has significantly ramped up its ballistic missile production, currently holding around 600 to 630 in reserve and aiming to produce up to 1,300 annually (roughly 100 per month). Simultaneously, Ukraine's stocks of Patriot (PAC-2/PAC-3) interceptors have run dangerously low. As a result, the interception rate for Russian ballistic missiles has dropped dramatically to just 10.2% in 2026, down over 200% from the war's outset.
To survive, Ukraine cannot afford to simply wait and shoot down incoming fire.
Three Pillars of the New Strategy
1. Active Defense: "Hunting the Launchers"
Instead of relying on scarce interceptors to shoot down missiles mid-air, Ukraine has initiated a new operational phase focused on preemptively destroying the launch platforms themselves.
- The Tactic: Utilizing deep-strike capabilities and expanded intelligence sharing, Ukrainian forces are actively hunting Russian mobile erector-launchers (like the Iskander systems) positioned in border regions such as Bryansk and Kursk.
- Recent Success: On August 22, 2026, President Zelenskyy confirmed a successful strike on an Iskander launcher, validating this "active defense" doctrine aimed at disrupting large-scale Russian salvos before they are fired.
2. Project FREYJA: A Sovereign European Shield
Recognizing that reliance on non-European (primarily US) systems is a critical vulnerability, Ukraine is spearheading Project FREYJA, formally launched in Paris in July 2026.
- The Coalition: The initiative includes 10 European nations (including the UK, France, Germany, and Sweden), with Ukraine acting as the system integrator.
- The Goal: The coalition aims to bypass operational bottlenecks—such as microelectronic supply chain issues—to build a pan-European, multilayered anti-ballistic missile architecture. A working prototype of the FREYJA interceptor shield is targeted for the first half of 2027.
3. Domestic Production & Bridging the Gap
While FREYJA develops, Ukraine is bridging its immediate vulnerabilities through a mix of domestic manufacturing and stopgap European procurement:
- Domestic Ballistics: Ukraine has accelerated its native defense-tech sector (working with clusters like Brave1), aiming to roll out its own domestic anti-ballistic systems and ballistic capabilities by 2026–2027.
- European Procurement: To cover the immediate shortfall, Ukraine recently secured an agreement with Germany for 600 PAC-2 missiles to be delivered across 2027–2028, and expects new radar systems and a SAMP/T battery from France this fall.
Assessments and Predictions for 2026–2027
1. A Vulnerable Winter Ahead
Despite the strategic shift, the winter of 2026–2027 is predicted to be exceptionally difficult. Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been heavily degraded, and spare equipment is finite. Because FREYJA and domestic anti-ballistic systems will not yield operational results until mid-to-late 2027, Russia will likely exploit the current 10% interception rate to continue pounding power grids and logistical nodes.
2. Escalation of Deep-Strike Warfare
Analysts predict the war will move further away from massive mechanized land maneuvers and heavily toward deep-strike warfare. Ukraine will increasingly use AI-guided drone swarms, cyber warfare, and long-range strikes to hold Russian oil, gas, and military manufacturing facilities at risk. This asymmetric pressure is intended to force Moscow to pull air defenses deeper into Russian territory, thereby easing the pressure on the frontline.
3. Integration into the European Defense Base
By 2027, Ukraine is predicted to fundamentally shift its defense posture away from US dependency. Through Project FREYJA and licenses to manufacture French and other European weaponry domestically, Ukraine is positioning itself as the central testing ground and manufacturer for Europe's next generation of continental air defense.
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Ukraine has recently shifted its defensive tactics toward directly hunting down and destroying Russian ballistic missile launchers, rather than solely relying on intercepting the missiles in the air. This shift is primarily driven by a shortage of air defense interceptors, such as Patriot missiles, and an unprecedented surge in Russian ballistic missile attacks.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed this approach on August 22, 2026, following a successful strike on a Russian Iskander launcher near the border.
The "Archer vs. Arrow" Strategy
Military analysts describe this approach using an "archer and arrow" analogy: instead of expending limited, expensive interceptor missiles to shoot down every incoming "arrow" (the missile), it is more effective to destroy the "archer" (the mobile launcher) before it can fire.
Here is a breakdown of why this strategy has been implemented and how it works:
- Interceptor Shortages: Ukraine is facing a severe shortage of Western-supplied anti-ballistic missile systems, making it difficult to maintain a purely defensive posture against incoming strikes.
- Record Attacks: Russia launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles (including S-400s, Zircons, and Oniks) at Ukraine in July 2026 alone—the highest monthly total since the full-scale invasion began.
- Targeting Mobile Launchers: Russia relies on an estimated 100 to 150 mobile launch units for these strikes. By systematically hunting down these specific vehicles, Ukraine aims to permanently degrade Russia's capacity to launch mass barrages.
- Deep Strike Capabilities: To execute this, Ukraine is utilizing complex strike operations, which include the use of advanced kamikaze drones capable of striking targets deep inside Russian territory or near the border. There are also ongoing discussions about equipping long-range drones with Starlink for better navigation and control during these specific hunt-and-destroy missions.
Zelenskyy has described this effort as a "separate, more difficult tactic" and a dedicated operation that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are actively prioritizing to protect strategic infrastructure.
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“Today we have another success. We cannot provide many details because of the sensitivity of the operation, but the fact remains. We struck an Iskander launcher near our borders. I am grateful to our soldiers carrying this out. This is our operation to hunt down their systems deployed nearby,” Zelenskyy said.
According to him, the operation is one way to respond when Ukraine has limited access to anti-ballistic missiles.
“There is another tactic, and it is more difficult. We developed it ourselves — hunting down their nearby launch sites from which ballistic missiles are fired. This is a separate effort, a separate program, a separate operation. And today we managed to do it. Our Defense Forces did an outstanding job,” the president added.
Russian forces have recently stepped up their use of ballistic missiles against Ukraine, particularly Kyiv. On the night of August 20, Russia launched a massive attack on Kyiv and the surrounding region involving dozens of ballistic missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles and attack drones.
According to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, 15 people were killed in the attack, while dozens more were injured. The Solomianskyi district suffered the highest number of casualties. A high-rise building, a school and a children's hospital were also damaged there.
Ukraine is also working on its own anti-ballistic missile program. Earlier, Ukrainian defense company Fire Point announced when it expects the first ballistic missile interception under its Freyja project and provided an update on the development.
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Ukraine has launched a new operation targeting Russian ballistic missile launchers near its borders, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Aug. 22, as Kyiv faces a shortage of missiles capable of intercepting ballistic weapons.
Zelensky said that Ukrainian military struck an Iskander ballistic missile launcher near Ukraine's borders on Aug. 22, without providing further details.
The strike was part of a separate operation to hunt down Russian missile systems positioned near Ukraine, which Zelensky described as an alternative tactic amid the dire lack of of anti-ballistic missile interceptors.
The Iskander is Russia's main surface to surface tactical ballistic missile system, with a stated range of around 500 kilometers.
Complemented with North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles and advanced Zircon cruise missiles, the Iskander has been the workhorse of combined mass attacks again Ukrainian targets in recent months.
When attacking Kyiv and other targets inside Ukraine, Iskanders are launched from mobile erector-launcher systems inside Russian territory, usually in border regions like Bryansk or Kursk oblasts.
With Ukraine's stocks of Patriot ballistic missile interceptor at or near empty, strikes against Iskander launchers have long been proposed as an alternative method of fighting the Iskander threat, but Ukraine has lacked options for quickly detecting and hitting launch sites.
"At one point (the Russians) were planning to launch an attack, but didn’t go through with it. This is no coincidence," Zelensky told journalists.
"In other words, we're working to prevent them from carrying out large-scale missile attacks. These are individual, complex operations, and we're now starting to see the first results."
Zelensky said Russia could potentially produce up to 1,300 ballistic missiles annually and currently has around 600–630 in stock. Moscow could eventually aim to produce around 100 ballistic missiles per month, he said, although it has not yet reached that rate.
Ukraine is also seeking more Patriot interceptors ahead of winter, Zelensky said, revealing that Ukraine had only received 264 missiles for the advanced surface-to-air system this year so far.
The Air Force has requested 360 missiles, up from an initial target of 300. According to the president, Kyiv hopes to secure 5–10% of U.S. stocks, with Ukraine prepared to pay for the missiles.
Zelensky also said Germany had agreed to provide 600 PAC-2 missiles for Patriot systems in 2027–2028, while negotiations with Washington over additional supplies continue.
Longer-term alternatives to the Patriot are also moving ahead, the president said, referring specifically to the Freyja project, a joint effort by European and Ukrainian defense companies to produce a new anti-ballistic missile system.
The project has moved from political discussions to the technical stage, with companies now beginning practical work, Zelensky said.
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Keith Kellogg, the former U.S. envoy to Ukraine, met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Aug. 22 to discuss Ukraine’s urgent need for air defense missiles, as Russia continues to intensify its attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Kellogg, previously regarded as one of the most pro-Ukrainian voices in the White House, left his position in 2025 but said his work in support of Ukraine would continue after leaving his government role.
Zelensky said on social media that he discussed with Kellogg Ukraine's shortage of Patriot air defense missiles, which the Presidential Office described as an "absolute priority" for Ukraine's defense needs. Zelensky reiterated to Kellogg the country's willingness to purchase the interceptor missiles ahead of what is expected to be yet another gruelling winter.
Russia has been exploiting Ukraine's shortage of protection against ballistic missiles, hammering cities with intense, frequent bombardments. Recent attacks over the last few days killed 16 people at a shopping center in Kryvyi Rih on Aug. 21 and 15 people in Kyiv on Aug. 20.
Kellogg's visit to Kyiv comes a day after the former official visited Odesa on Aug. 21 as part of a working group analysis Russia's ongoing attacks on port infrastructure.
The U.S. delegation led by Kellogg was shown the damage from Russian attacks on port infrastructure and briefed on measures being taken to maintain operations, the Infrastructure Ministry said.
Amid Zelensky's calls for more Patriot interceptor missiles from allies, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Aug. 22 that France will speed up the delivery of missiles and other military equipment following a nearly two-hour-long phone call between the two leaders.
Macron also agreed to help Kyiv in its communications with international partners that possess Patriot air defense systems, according to Zelensky. The president has repeatedly said that Patriots are critical for protecting Ukrainian civilians.
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